Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 16.858948 20.401850 24.334068 28.998074 34.354080 40.287044 47.329910
2025-06-01 11.396287 15.895070 21.445685 28.690704 37.781627 48.690615 62.638614
2025-06-08 8.071743 12.670264 18.851817 27.542342 39.191532 53.997996 73.934138
2025-06-15 6.519443 11.291187 18.168827 28.419017 42.868155 62.034395 88.827553
2025-06-22 4.967544 9.509197 16.526132 27.590869 43.945517 66.509648 99.142047
2025-06-29 4.205615 8.767568 16.236884 28.567611 47.493028 74.416987 114.382481
2025-07-06 3.129758 7.229080 14.415318 26.919091 46.938356 76.397538 121.382347
2025-07-13 2.711483 6.783885 14.305140 27.914554 50.386812 84.268851 137.057819
2025-07-20 2.336996 6.332050 14.097294 28.686316 53.488007 91.738240 152.447948
2025-07-27 2.063860 6.025062 14.094971 29.779066 57.141103 100.186838 169.618368
2025-08-03 1.795285 5.660352 13.918791 30.520116 60.226972 107.871757 185.923638
2025-08-10 1.455558 5.032127 13.113886 30.003170 61.107392 112.083142 197.044094
2025-08-17 1.108927 4.305556 12.043236 28.985179 61.263614 115.511909 207.742602
2025-08-24 0.876246 3.809544 11.388753 28.715277 62.760265 121.282911 222.551647
2025-08-31 0.647137 3.218035 10.380420 27.567878 62.508988 124.066211 232.632440
2025-09-07 0.554697 3.039434 10.337946 28.445292 66.112852 133.571297 254.053888
2025-09-14 0.415742 2.615713 9.569117 27.616532 66.328948 137.176168 265.815922
2025-09-21 0.360237 2.497417 9.598712 28.594000 70.170801 147.341248 288.965481
2025-09-28 0.247925 2.047412 8.571767 26.944251 68.544388 147.588691 295.225445
2025-10-05 0.215516 1.967583 8.634872 27.940458 72.451997 158.082356 319.503271
2025-10-12 0.183472 1.867396 8.611322 28.712793 75.930369 167.922651 342.969889
2025-10-19 0.160953 1.808048 8.709507 29.806350 80.164251 179.343462 369.581030
2025-10-26 0.136527 1.716235 8.676224 30.547944 83.672128 189.527342 394.317764